Two Main Goals: Time series

Time series has two main goals. The first goal is to identify the nature of the phenomenon that is represented by a sequence of observations and the second is to forecast, which means to predict the future values of the time series variable. The requirement of both these goals is that the pattern of the observed time series data gets identified and described in a formal manner. After having established the pattern it is possible to interpret and integrate it with other data.  Irrespective of the  understanding that has been developed for the validity of the interpretation of the phenomenon, the identified pattern can be extrapolated for the prediction of the future events.

Identification of the patterns in the time series data:

1.    Systematic pattern and random noise: In the time series analysis, it is often assumed that the data comprises systematic pattern which is usually a set of some identifiable components and random noise. This makes it difficult to identify the pattern usually.  In most of the time series analysis, for making the pattern more salient, some amount of filtering is surely required.

2.    The general aspects of the time series pattern: in most of the time series patterns, they can be described in terms of two basic classes of component. They are trend and seasonality. The first one represents a general systematic linear or non-linear component and the second one may have a formally similar nature.  Like for example a plateau that is followed by a long period of exponential growth. These two general classes of time series data can be seen co existing in real life data.

3.    Trend Analysis: There are a whole lot of proven techniques that help to identify trend components in the time series data. As long as the trend is  monotonous, the data does not become very difficult. However , if there is considerable error in the data, the first step in the process is smoothing. By smoothing, we mean the process of averaging out the data in such a fashion that the non-systematic components are able to cancel out each other.

4.    Function fitting: a lot of monotonous time series can be sufficiently approximated by the linear function. It is important to first transform the data to remove non linearity. Mostly a logarithmic, exponential or a polynomial function can be used.

A very general question that comes up in quality control and is often witnessed or faced by the engineers is to select how many items for a batch for the purpose of inspection in order to be sure that the items that are there in the batch are of a quality that is acceptable. Acceptance Sampling is a procedure that is applicable here and it helps in deciding when there is a need to find out if the lot of items comply with the specifications without actually checking each item individually. This concept of Acceptance Sampling does have advantages over doing up a hundred per cent inspection as it saves on to a lot of time, effort and money. It also so happens with some items, according to their properties, is that a hundred percent testing would destroy the entire batch. Thus when we look at the picture from a managerial perspective, rejection of the complete batch or the shipment on the basis of acceptance sampling than just a certain percentage of defective items which is based on the concept of hundred percent inspections does give a strong incentive to the supplier to be able to adhere to the quality standards.

The approach towards deciding the sample size for acceptance sampling is very straight forward. The basic concepts discuss the concept of sampling distribution. If the researcher were to take repeated samples of a particular size from the population then the distribution of the averages of the specifications of the product would come to a normal distribution with a specific mean and standard distribution. When we talk of sampling distribution, we prefer to use the word sampling error instead. The good part is that, it is not necessary to take repeated samples from the population so as to identify the mean and the variability or the standard error in the chosen population. If the researcher has an idea about the variability in the population, then it is easier to infer the sampling distribution of the mean. In principle, this given information is sufficient in order to estimate the sample size so as to find out a certain change in quality that is needed.

The biggest hurdle that researchers face in data mining  is that of unstructured text as that is how majority of information available online is not structured and organised properly.

Open Ended Questions: Another place where the information collected is in an unstructured form is the open ended survey responses that are pertaining to the topic which is under study. The purpose of open ended questions is to allow the respondents to bring out their opinion or views without getting constrained to a particular dimension or predefined format. These open ended questions do give an insight to the researcher to explore those areas and viewpoints of the respondent that may remain untouched in a more structured and closed ended questionnaire. Techniques to text mining do help in the segregation and classification of data that is collected from open ended sources

Automatic processing of messages and emails:  This is another useful application area of text mining.  It helps to automatically filter the mails and messages on the basis of predefined terms into desirable and undesirable messages.  It identified junk mail on the basis of certain terms or words and it makes it easy to discard such messages automatically without much effort. This automatic text mining technique also aids in routing of messages to the appropriate agency or department automatically on the basis of predefined system.

Analysis of warranty or insurance claims, interviews etc. : In a whole lot of businesses, a lot of information is collected in the form of open ended textual form. The warranty claims, medical information or history of patients, automobile owners information profile. All this information needs to be sorted and categorized for appropriate actions. For the best possible exploitation if this information,  clustering into relevant data sets in done by the aid of data mining.

Competitor investing by website crawling: Sometimes there is a need to find out the content on the site of the competitor. The most significant and important terms and features could be distinguished and identified by using the text mining techniques. It is easy to see how these capabilities are able to deliver in efficient manner valuable business intelligence about ye different activities of the competitors.

There are some general features of a report that are to be followed in order to make a well structured and meaningful report.

Title Page

It should be a brief page and should explicitly describe the purpose of the report. Other important details that should form a part of this page are the name, date and for whom the report has been created. The terms of reference should also be explained so as to give clarity on the department, degree and audience of the report. It could be in two lines or more depending upon the specific guidelines of the university or department.

 Abstract

It has to briefly describe the content of the report. The abstract should clearly throw light on the aim of the report in not more than half a page. It should be remembered that the summary/Abstract is the first thing that is read  and hence it is imperative that it should give a clear, helpful overview of the report content so that further reading interest is maintained and nurtured as well.

Index/Table of Contents

It should list the different chapters and include the subheadings along with the page numbers. The structure of this page should be such that the reader is able to quickly scan the heading lists and locate any detail with page specifications easily. In addition to giving page references, one could also provide chapter headings and sub headings. Make sure that there is consistency and clarity throughout.

Introduction

This chapter sets the foundation for the main content of the report hence the target of this chapter should be to explain the aims and objectives of the report in detail here. The problems and limitations of the report should be explained with also a brief inclusion of the description of the research methods, parameters and also the background history.

Methods

 The methods adopted for the research are crucial and they should give details of the equipment that has been used, procedures, and sources of information, references of sources and statistical tools and techniques adopted. The right explanation of this part in the report justifies the authenticity of the report.

Results

 The results chapter can be created as a very aesthetically appealing chapter as it offers scope for incorporating diagrams, graphs, tables and other applicable pictorial representations to explain the outcome of the results.

The last few chapters like the discussion, conclusion and references are an extension of the previous chapters and it should take forward the flow of the report and maintain continuity.

Often we find a lot of tips and guidelines available for writing more effectively. There are various means and ways in which one can become more effective writer. One important and the most practical tip here would be to separate the writing into different phases.

A lot of people , particularly in the academics are sometimes in th starting stage of learning effective writing skills. They are often seen juggling with a lot of balls at the same time and they get entrapped in doing a lot of activities simultaneously. These activities could be rephrasing, working on the structure of the text, getting more clarity on the arguments, verifying the literature, and thinking about the different content.

It is certainly understandable and believable that the effectiveness and efficiency of the work would suffer when one person would be engaged in so many things simultaneously. It would make the brain of the person spin and the situation would be virtually impossible to handle. So the key to success here and the most useful tip would be to split the entire writing work.

To begin with, one needs to prepare and preparation means thinking about the structure, literature , the quality and type of audience and the kinds of goals one is wanting to achieve and know the deadlines that have been set. The preparation is like a pre approach, which is one much before one starts writing.

If the preparation is good, by the end of it the design would be ready and the  deeper the detailing of  the design, the easier become the further steps of writing. It is indeed very helpful for yourself to not just write down few key words but also but make a detail list of the table of contents. It could also be called a construction plan. A lot of books can be found where one may find means and tips to do the same.

The next stage is the stage of free writing.  The writer should write as fast as possible. The focus should not be on being able to produce perfect sentences or paragraphs but to actually complete or to say it better, fill up your design much faster.  Working on grammar, style and other intricacies is for the next or latter phase.  At the revision stage the correction of the text begins and the writer would start looking at the structure of the text as a whole. It is indeed a surety,  that working on this pattern would make the writing more efficient.